When Will it Rain?

Here in Israel rain is rare. The rainy season is after the Jewish Holidays, usually starting some time in October, ending in March.  And even then we can have a couple of dry weeks or more. Droughts are common. Actually, we're suffering the effects of a shrinking Lake Kinneret (Galilee) and Dead Sea right now.

I'm not writing this to complain about the weather. It's just that I'm planning on going to Jerusalem and want to be "prepared." It's not all that cold, but should I bring a jacket, umbrella etc? The forecasts aren't clear. One says dry, and the other predicts rain.

Last night as the sun was setting

Today we expect +27..+20 °C, without precipitation, gentle breeze. Tomorrow: +25..+22 °C, without precipitation, gentle breeze. Weather site

Scattered Thunderstorms 26°17° 40% W 18 km/h 66%
Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. High 26C. Winds W at 15 to 25 km/h. Chance of rain 40%.  A different weather site